Diffusion of Innovation Theory: The "S" Curve

"In every society there are specific segments of the population that try a new product or adopt a new behavior at different stages, but it always follows the same pattern, the 'S' Curve. In this short video we introduce you to the concept of the 'S' Curve and how it works to spread a new behavior across the population."

Diffusion of innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. It was developed by Everett Rogers in 1962. This animated video from the conservation organisation Rare illustrates implications of this theory for communicators and social marketers. It uses drawings and narration to examine 5 different types of "adopter groups", who can be categorised by the time it takes them to adopt an innovation or behaviour in any given society. Marketing researchers can measure the percentage of people who have adopted a new behaviour (from 0% to 100%), which tends to follow a pattern of slower then faster then slower. This can be envisioned as an "S" curve with a step rise, then a flattening out, and then a step rise at the end.

The goal for innovations is that they are widely adopted in a community as quickly as possible. The rate at which this occurs can be characterised by 5 groups: First, 2.5% of the population are the risk takers/innovators, who try an innovation almost immediately after it is introduced. Next, 12.5% are trend setters/early adopters, followed by the early majority (34%) and late majority (34%) - at this point, the rate of adoption speeds up, reaching a critical mass, becoming widespread, and then spreading on its own (without the need of early champions like the innovators and early adopters to endorse it). At this point, the innovation is considered a social norm. Finally, the curve flattens out as reaches the "laggards", who are resistant to change. The length of time this all takes can vary depending on the characteristics of innovation and community, but the pattern is always the same: slow to fast to slow.

The video concludes by instructing social marketers to continually measure the percentage of the population that has already adopted an innovation, gauging this number at different points in time. This will help determine whom to direct marketing messages to next.