Working Effectively in Conflict-affected and Fragile Situations: Briefing Paper A: Analysing Conflict and Fragility

This 13-page briefing paper from the United Kingdom (UK) Department for International Development (DFID) takes as its starting point the Development Assistance Committee (DAC)'s principle #1: to take context as the starting point in contexts of conflict and fragility. A key communication-related component of this approach is that international actors are tasked with understanding the country context and developing a shared view of the strategic response that is required.

In brief, DFID has learned that joint analysis with its development partners, and working to achieve a shared view of the context and appropriate responses, should be the foundation for engagement in conflict-affected and fragile situations. Analysis serves a number of purposes, helping to:

• develop a shared understanding of context with DFID's partners;
• understand the underlying causes, features, and dynamics of fragility and conflict, and identify the more immediate risks of instability;
• interpret changes on the ground, including trends and events;
• identify priorities and opportunities for engagement, including levers for supporting social, political, and economic change; and
• decide on appropriate forms of alignment.

As detailed here, DFID has a range of analytical tools and approaches at its disposal for conflict and fragility, each with different strengths and fields of application. These are summarised in Annex 1 toward the end of the paper. Experience suggests that combining more than one perspective for in-depth analysis - e.g. conflict, exclusion, and/or political economy analysis - is likely to produce the most robust and comprehensive analysis of fragility. Tools geared toward country-level analysis should, per DFID, be supplemented by those that seek to draw out the links between local, national, regional, and international dimensions of conflict and fragility. "Keeping analysis fresh and updated is particularly important in situations of conflict and fragility, where conditions can change very quickly....In-depth analysis...should be combined with regular political reporting and media monitoring."

With regard to joint analysis and assessments, DFID identifies the need to strike an appropriate balance between ensuring the analysis meets DFID's requirements (i.e. that it is sufficiently independent and robust) and maximising its potential value as a basis for dialogue, shared understanding, and collaboration with others. Also, DFID stresses that joint analysis requires collaboration from the outset, including development of the scope and Terms of Reference, agreement on the expertise required, budget and time frame, and full engagement with the emerging findings throughout the process. "DFID's own analysis can be shared and disseminated, but this is much less likely to lead to a genuinely shared understanding of context or to buy-in from others."

Key lessons:

• Clarify the objectives and audience for the analysis - Political considerations will affect how the analysis is used and interpreted, and should be considered early on.
• Make sure the analysis is dynamic, not static - This can be done by linking in-depth analysis to regular political monitoring and reporting, scenario/contingency planning, and programme/project reviews to test its validity over time. Indicators can be developed and monitored over time to track changes to the political, social, and economic environment.
• Aim for joint analysis with other donors and partners as a starting point - Seek to ensure that DFID's analysis contributes to a wider collective effort to understand the context and develop a shared, international response. Work closely with multilaterals and regional organisations where possible.
• Work towards joint analysis with national governments and institutions where feasible, while taking into account the trade-offs that this may entail, given the sensitivities of conflict and fragility issues. "Up-stream" aid modalities (e.g. budget support or Sector-Wide Approaches) may provide a rationale for joint analysis to underpin dialogue.
• Consider how to generate practical options and recommendations - Ensure that this is in the scope of work, that the analysis will be legitimate and robust, and that there is a "champion" for taking forward the findings of the analysis.
• Be aware of sensitivities - Consider classification and/or publication issues early on, to avoid problems with development partners once analysis is shared. Consider having two versions or classified annexes if necessary.